What is a black swan event: “First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website. Why is thecoronavirus a black swan？
The COVID-19 outbroke in Wu Han, a city with 11 million populations in China. In early 2020, the Chinese government announced the epidemic prevention and control measures to the world, which went unnoticed at that time. But just a month later, in mid-March, more than half of the world's countries imposed lockdown measures to combat the spread of the epidemic. This is a probability event that people can't predict, but it really happened. According to the data of the World Health Organization: the cumulative number of cases of SARS virus reached 8,240 in 2003, with 745 deaths and a mortality rate of 9.04%. This is a punishment for mankind, which still does not attract enough attention. The outbreak of COVID-19 is a result of nature‘s revenge on human beings, due to human’s endless killing and eating of wild animals. So can we say in all fairness and honesty that no one saw the possibility of COVID-19 coming？
Negotiations between Arabs and Russia over oil production cuts have resulted in oil being cheaper than water. The current trade war between China and the United States has led to tariff increases on both sides.
Catering industry:the epidemic has led to a lack of catering enterprises, stagnant sources of income, on the other hand, enterprises still have to bear the cost of food, labor and rent during the epidemic. Without the hedging of passenger flow consumption to these operating costs, the cash flow of catering enterprises is difficult. If the impact of the epidemic is not alleviated for a long time, a large number of small and medium-sized catering enterprises will face tremendous pressure for survival.
Tourism and aviation industry:The impact of COVID-19 on tourism and aviation is fatal. All 217 destinations around the world have introduced 100% travel restrictions for international tourists, of which 156 have completely closed their borders to international tourists. A total of 83% of tourist destinations in Europe completely ban international tourists, compared with 80% in the Americas, 70% in the Asia-Pacific region, 62% in the Middle East and 57% in Africa.
Tui Group, Europe's first traditional travel agency, has announced that it will cut 8,000 jobs. Due to the impact of COVID-19 epidemic, the group has suffered heavy losses and plans to cut 8,000 jobs worldwide, accounting for more than 10 percent of its workforce.
So is the COVID-19 a black swan or gray rhino？ There is no doubt that the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic is a typical “black swan” incident. This virus is seldom seen in human history. But, the epidemic seems to have the characteristics of “gray rhino”. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, China issued an early warning to the United States and other countries at the beginning of 2020, and even blocked a city with a population of 11 million in order to control the epidemic spread. The aim is to give the world time to fight the epidemic. However, the warning has not attracted the attention of most countries in the world. It seems that a “gray rhino” was slowly getting up and approaching.
This epidemic has exposed the shortcomings of public health emergency response systems in countries all over the world, and there are deficiencies in the prevention and control system, capacity-building and material reserves for major infectious diseases. In particular, in addition to the dutiful work of the World Health Organization, so far, there is a lack of a more charismatic and overall coordination mechanism in response to the global major outbreaks. These hidden weaknesses, like “gray rhinos”, have long been dormant , but have not been taken seriously. Behind each “black swan” hide “gray rhinos”. In 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers was a “black swan”, while the persistent malformation in the financial and real estate sectors of the United States was the “gray rhino”. In 1997, Soros' “mischief” was a “black swan”, while the high growth of global overdraft and the expansion of non-performing assets were “gray rhinos”.