Gold‘s 1900+ Track Looks to Be in Santa’s Sack
Gold: A year ago in this paragraph we penned: “…priced per this writing at $1,482, our valuation measure by debasement alone of the U.S. money supply (M2) is Gold $2,991. No, price shant rocket up that far in 2020…”To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx official website.
With Gold today priced at $1,890, our debasement value of Gold is $3,600: and given all the additionally COVID-induced debasement, Gold ought have a super 2021, perhaps not reaching all the way to $3,600. But should history yet again repeat, Gold eventually shall catch up to debasement value: thus price remains terrifically undervalued and shall move up into uncharted territory above the recent all-time high of $2,089 as 2021 unfolds.
The S&P 500: A year ago in this paragraph we penned of : “…the President being re-elected…but the Trade of the Year is to sell the S&P going into Election Day…”
Wrong we were. And yet the S&P is now even more excessively expensive as we‘ve ever seen it: upon Tesla (TSLA) being added to the Index, our “live” P/E stands to exceed 60x! Pardon the drama, but that is stock market suicide. Especially as at this writing, the yield on the “riskless” Bond is 1.676% vs. that on the “risk unlimited” S&P only being 1.532% Uh-ohhh… And should the S&P halve itself, ’twould still by lack of substantive earnings be expensive.
So there ‘tis. Plus, as herein penned and graphically depicted (per last week’s missive) of Gold‘s rise into year-end over recent years, ’tis thus far again playing out. Moreover, just in time for Santa‘s sleigh ride ’round the world. For as we go to Gold‘s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, in settling out yesterday (Friday) at 1887, price is now well within range to take out the overhead descending red dots of parabolic Short trend so as to flip ’em Long in the ensuing week. (That of course barring a bunch of Short Scrooges hitting underlying bids to make it all go wrong).
But the point is: with Gold at 1887, the flip price as depicted at 1925, and our “expected weekly trading range” now at 77 points, the 38-point run up to eclipse the red dots is well within range. “Now, Dasher! Now, Dancer! And the balance of you bunch! Lets DO this!” (A little poetic license, there):
As for you dot counters scoring at home, the duration of the above red dots is now 17 weeks, ranking it fifth amongst the 42 parabolic Short trends millennium-to-date. For the other prior four of more Short duration, once they flipped to Long, the additional upside Gold points gained were +126 (after 20 Jan ‘12), +181 (after 17 Aug ’12), +35 (after 31 May ‘13) and +148 (after 07 Sep ’18). So from the “Fun With Numbers Dept.” were the current parabolic Short trend flip to Long at the noted 1925 price and the average points gain following those four other occurrences ensure, the rise would be +122 points to 2047 … sufficiently near the All-Time High of 2089 that 2100+ would be just fine. Whats in your hearth stocking？
Speaking of stock, the market of such obliviously keeps rising, the S&P 500 recording its own all-time high on Friday at 3727. That‘s carrying an obscenely high “live” price/earnings ratio of 45.8x. Oh but wait there so much more! The big four-wheel battery company Tesla (TSLA) goes into the S&P 500 on Monday, so we can update that … now hang on, let’s see … the stock is $695/share of which outstanding are 947.9 million and the trailing 12-months EPS is 57¢ which puts its P/E at 1,227.5x and by capitalization weighting twill rank fifth amongst all 505 S&P constituents with a 2.021% share of the Index … and WOW: that puts the P/E of the entire S&P up to 69.7x! Cue the late, great sportscaster Bullet Bill King: “Holy Toledo!” (Stock market suicide, indeed).
Further, taking stock of the Economic Barometer finds it in full plunge of late, And let‘s face it, ’tis hard to maintain the torrid pace of the Baro‘s recovery in climbing out from COVID. ’Course the stock market per the red line of the S&P 500 could care less about the economy, just as it does not about earnings. (But let‘s not through cold water upon Santa’s annual rally, lest his sleigh rudders freeze). Nonetheless, incoming Baro metrics this past week found lower levels for December in each of the New York Empire State, Philly Fed and National Association of Home Builders readings, as well as slowing in both November‘s Industrial Production and Leading Indicators, and outright shrinkage for the month’s Retail Sales. Thus the Baro as it currently fails: