The Cboe Volatility Index — or VIX, also known as the market's fear gauge — has retreated from a record high in recent weeks as stocks have recovered from their recent lows. Bank of America derivatives strategists found that this commonly cited index does not paint the full picture of what to expect in the months ahead. They believe stocks are likely to retest the lows, and recommend a hedge that bets on lower equities and a higher gold price.Click here for more BI Prime stories.To get more news about Sink into, you can visit wikifx news official website.
The fastest bear market in history still has more drama up its sleeve, according to derivatives strategists at Bank of America. A counterpoint can be found in the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which reflects traders' future expectations for stock fluctuations. It is widely known as the market's fear gauge and tends to move in the opposite direction to the S&P 500. When the benchmark index experienced its fastest drop in record mid-March, the VIX mirrored it with a spike above 82, its highest level since November 2008. It has since rolled back to near 34, and the decline from the March 16 peak through April 27 was one of the fastest in history, according to data compiled by Bank of America.But this decline is masking other indicators that suggest the coronavirus crisis will trigger more volatility, the bank's strategists including Gonzalo Asis said in a recent note. They found that longer-dated volatility futures, including contracts that expire in six months, were rallying even as the popular spot-dated VIX was declining.
A closer look into the historical relationship between the spot VIX and six-month futures adds more heft to their conclusion. There have been 105 days since 1990 when the VIX closed above 30 six months after it first crossed that level. However, only three of those days were outside of bear markets, indicating that an elevated VIX — like the one we have now — is historically more prevalent during bear markets. “Assuming VIX futures markets are pricing in this fact, the 6th VIX future trading above 30 suggests the expectation is that the bear market is likely not over,” Asis said.
He added, “our view remains that US equities are in a bear market rally and that they are likely to retest the lows before a full recovery, a view supported by strong historical evidence.”Hedge a sell-off with goldIt is prudent for investors to hedge the downside risk in stocks, Asis said. His recommendation to add portfolio protection by executing trades that wager on a rise in the price of gold, via the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund. “To cheapen equity hedges, we like trades that are both short equities and long gold, such as SPX puts contingent on gold higher and SPX down/gold up dual digitals,” he said. Investors who had counted on gold as a hedge during the recent plunge in stocks may be surprised at this recommendation since the precious metal also fell 13%.
Asis explained that gold sold off with stocks in an environment of “peak panic” — and it was not the first time. During the initial meltdowns of 1987, 2002, and 2008, gold also failed as a hedge in the early rush to sell. But during subsequent declines that were driven less by panic, gold was bid up as a safe-haven asset. “Our commodity strategists expect substantially more upside over the near- and medium-term as 'the Fed can't print gold', raising last week their 2020YE average price to $1,800/oz. and their 18-month gold target from $2,000 to $3,000/oz,” Asis added.With that in mind, his two trade recommendations are listed below verbatim:1. (Hybrid): Buy SPX Sep 2500 put (87%) contingent on GLD /> 180 (111%) for 0.75% (80% disc., ref. 2878.48, 161.56)
Best for a more bearish equity view. The 2500 SPX strike is 11% above Mar lows. The 180 GLD strike corresponds to ~$1,900/oz., near all-time highs & in line with our commodity strategists' $1,800 $/oz. avg. price by year end2. (Dual digital): Buy Sep SPX 105% for a 10-to-1 payout (ref. 2878.48, 161.56)Best for a moderately bearish equity view. Roughly corresponds to SPX 2675 and gold at $1,800/oz.
Hertz is preparing for a potential bankruptcy filing, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.The situation is fluid, sources told the paper, as the company hopes to reduce lease payments by May 4.The company laid off 10,000 employees — more than a quarter of its total workforce — in April.Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.To get more news about BoE, you can visit wikifx news official website. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars plunged over one percent against the Greenback along with US equity futures early into Asias Wednesday trading session. The catalyst appeared to be concern about delays regarding the implementation of a $2 trillion fiscal plan from the government overseeing the largest economy in the world. Sentiment in Asia was also soured by dismal advanced GDP data from Singapore.To get more news about AMP, you can visit wikifx news official website. Someone has won the jackpot prize of $28 million by playing the SuperLotto Plus in California. 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"We are in a residential area and even though some stores in our area have closed, we have stayed open to serve our community," said Paul Morrow, the 7-Eleven location's franchisee, in the press release. "Selling Lottery products absolutely helps business, no doubt about it." He added that he isn't sure what he'll do with the bonus yet. Revenue from the California lottery supports public education but it also provides commissions to stores based on the ticket sales. During late March and early April of this year, retailers across the state received over $7 million per week in commissions and bonuses from the lottery, according to officials. 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A South Carolina man had extra trouble convincing his wife that his $250,000 lottery win was legitimate due to her memories of a past prank.Get more news about 彩票包网平台,you can vist loto98.com The Richburg man and his wife told South Carolina Education Lottery officials they don't normally play the lottery, but they won $10 on a ticket they received as a Christmas gift and used the money to buy another ticket, which was also a winner.The couple kept their winning streak going until the man stopped for take-out and bought a Money to the Max scratch-off that turned out to be a $250,000 winner. The man had a difficult time convincing his wife the win was real, and for good reason -- he had previously pranked her with a fake winning ticket."I grabbed his face with both my hands and made him look me the eye," the wife recalled. "I asked, 'Are you messing with me?'The couple said their win came at just the right time. "This is a life changer," said the wife. "Especially in these times."An Australian man who scored a lottery jackpot of nearly $800,000 said he bought his ticket by mistake while attempting to play a different drawing. The Hobart, Tasmania, man told The Lott officials that he had meant to buy a different ticket when he visited Sandy Bay Lotteries.I actually wanted to play the Superdraw this weekend but accidentally bought an entry into last weekend's TattsLotto draw by mistake," he said. "So it's a mistake that led me to have this winning entry, but I'm very happy with that mistake!" The man, who wanted to remain anonymous, collected a Division One prize of $785,303."Yesterday, I checked my ticket on my phone. I didn't know what to think. I thought it was a joke at first. Even now, I'm not so sure. I'm a bit overwhelmed," he said. The winner said he is making plans for his prize money."I can't wait to clear the mortgage, then after that, we'll see. 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